Indonesia’s coffee output will fall short of a previous estimate by around 50,000 tonnes this year due to an El Nino weather pattern that is likely to cause dry spells across key growing areas, an industry group said on Friday. The Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries (AEKI), however, kept its forecast for exports by the world’s No 4 coffee producer unchanged at 350,000 tonnes, indicating a limited impact on global robusta prices that are currently mired near 1-1/2-year lows of $1,566 per tonne.
Output from the Southeast Asian country, the world’s No 3 robusta producer, is seen at 600,000-650,0000 tonnes this year, AEKI Chairman Irfan Anwar told Reuters. This would be lower than an earlier AEKI forecast of 650,000-700,000 tonnes and below 711,513 tonnes produced in 2014.
“The weather is not stable,” said Anwar, referring to current weather patterns, including an El Nino that can lead to scorching weather across Asia and east Africa, but heavy rains and floods in parts of South America. In 2009, the El Nino brought the worst drought in four decades to India. It razed wheat fields in Australia and damaged crops across Asia. Food prices surged. Weather bureaus have confirmed its return this year.